Hello,
We had a strange moment earlier this hot summer when things just seemed to go slightly wrong, small things, nothing to be too worried about.
But then came the curious incident of the disappearing Velux window pole, an essential item if you wish to open a skylight window and let out the heat. It had simply vanished.
I suspect Sherlock Holmes would have classed this as a two-pipe mystery.
After considerable searching, giving some thought to theft, and me (rather unhelpfully) muttering about budgets, we returned to Holmes: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”
So, we purchased a new one.
As the heat built, so too did the sense of larger things going wrong… a challenge gathering pace and heading towards the Probation Service is HM Government preparing to release (early) and monitor many thousands more prisoners in the community this autumn.
From September, we will see a significant expansion, with up to 40,000 people in total being monitored by electronic tags and overseen by probation officers – an increase of around 40% on current numbers.
Each service is trying to prepare for this, but from what we can see there is little sign of a coherent overarching strategic plan to deal with this event.
As the great detective pointed out… “One should always look for a possible alternative and provide against it.”
Contingency planning – having a backup plan in case your first assumption or strategy turns out to be wrong.
There appears to be no alternative plan. Prisons are over full and the Probation Service is overstretched.
The Public Accounts Committee found that longstanding staff shortages had left probation staff dealing with “excessive and unmanageable workloads”, with officers working well above capacity for several years in some areas.
Just as the heat here hit its peak, would you believe it… we found the original pole.
Brillant.
We now have two!
Perhaps we can call that good contingency planning.
Chris
2nd July 2026